More than two years into Sudan's civil war, the fighting is shifting toward Kordofan, where the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces are trying to seize el-Obeid, a hub city held by the army. Aid agencies say the campaign is uprooting thousands of civilians and pushing an already desperate region toward catastrophe.
Why el-Obeid matters
El-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, sits at a crossroads linking the Darfur region, Kordofan and central Sudan, which makes it a prize for both sides, Al Jazeera reported. The Sudanese army has held the city, and the RSF, which has fought the army since April 2023, has been pressing in on it as it seeks to consolidate control across Sudan's west after losing ground in the capital, Khartoum.
A siege by other means
Rather than encircle el-Obeid outright, the RSF has leaned heavily on drone strikes, hitting power, fuel and water infrastructure, The National reported. Residents have described long stretches without electricity and sharply rising prices for food and water, the effects of a blockade-like situation created without a formal encirclement. Analysts quoted by Al Jazeera described the tactic as producing "the conditions of a siege" through drones alone.
Civilians on the move
The humanitarian toll is mounting. The UN's migration agency and other bodies say more than 11,000 people, among them around 5,500 children, have fled the area in recent weeks, adding to tens of thousands already displaced in and around the city, the International Organization for Migration reported. Aid officials warn that hundreds of thousands could be affected if the fighting intensifies, and that damage to water systems raises the risk of disease. Rights monitors have also documented abuses against people trying to flee.
Echoes of el-Fasher
The pattern recalls the long RSF siege of el-Fasher in Darfur, which fell to the group last year after a drawn-out assault, and has raised fears that el-Obeid could follow. Sudan's war, now among the world's largest displacement crises, has driven millions from their homes and left much of the population reliant on aid. As the front moves into Kordofan, el-Obeid has become the latest place where control of a single city carries outsized weight, for the war's course and for the civilians caught inside it.
