The rapid rise of artificial intelligence risks widening the gap between rich and poor countries unless governments act deliberately to spread its benefits, the United Nations' trade and development body has warned.
A vast, concentrated market
In its analysis of AI and development, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) projects that the AI market could be worth about $4.8 trillion by 2033, UN News reported — a scale it likened to the size of a major national economy. But the report cautions that this value is highly concentrated: it estimates that around 100 companies, most of them in the United States and China, account for roughly 40 percent of the world's private research-and-development spending, according to UNCTAD.
That concentration, the agency argues, means the gains from AI could flow disproportionately to a handful of large firms and wealthy states, rather than being shared broadly.
The risk to jobs
UNCTAD estimates that AI could affect as many as 40 percent of jobs worldwide in the coming years. The report stresses that this does not mean outright loss of all those roles — AI may automate some tasks, transform others and create new work — but it warns the transition could be disruptive and uneven.
Developing economies that have competed on lower labor costs may find that advantage eroded as automation spreads, the agency says, and it cautions that the benefits of automation often accrue to owners of capital rather than workers — a dynamic that could deepen inequality if left unchecked.
A governance gap
The report highlights how far many countries are from the center of AI decision-making. It notes that a large number of nations, predominantly in the developing world, are absent from the main international discussions shaping how AI is governed, and that many developing countries have yet to adopt national AI strategies. Adoption of AI tools is also lopsided, far higher in richer countries than in poorer ones.
Without a seat at the table, UNCTAD argues, those countries risk having the rules of a transformative technology written without them.
What the UN recommends
The agency frames its prescriptions around three areas where developing countries need investment and support: digital infrastructure and computing power, access to good-quality data, and skills and education. It also floats ideas such as shared public computing resources to lower the cost of entry, and greater transparency and disclosure around how AI is built and deployed.
UNCTAD's secretary-general, Rebeca Grynspan, has framed the challenge as shifting the focus "from technology to people," and called for stronger international cooperation so that AI narrows rather than widens global divides. The report's central message is that the technology's trajectory is not fixed: with the right policies, its authors argue, AI could support development — but on the current path, it risks entrenching the very gaps it might help close.
